Forecast summary | ||||||
(% unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||
2010a | 2011b | 2012b | 2013b | 2014b | 2015b | |
Real GDP growth | 7.2 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.6 |
Industrial production growth | 7.5 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 5.5 |
Gross agricultural production growth | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
Unemployment rate (av) | 3.5c | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
Consumer price inflation (av) | 1.7 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
Consumer price inflation (end-period) | 2.1 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
Base lending rate | 5.1 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
Central government balance (% of GDP) | -5.5c | -5.5 | -4.7 | -4.4 | -4.0 | -3.8 |
Exports of goods fob (US$ bn) | 197.3c | 225.4 | 242.8 | 265.7 | 294.6 | 320.9 |
Imports of goods fob (US$ bn) | -155.2c | -173.6 | -193.8 | -214.1 | -233.7 | -251.9 |
Current-account balance (US$ bn) | 28.2c | 38.6 | 35.9 | 39.0 | 48.6 | 58.0 |
Current-account balance (% of GDP) | 11.9c | 13.9 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 13.9 |
External debt (end-period; US$ bn) | 62.1c | 65.1 | 68.2 | 71.6 | 74.3 | 76.8 |
Exchange rate M$:US$ (av) | 3.22 | 3.02 | 2.98 | 2.95 | 2.92 | 2.89 |
Exchange rate M$:US$ (end-period) | 3.08 | 3.01 | 3.00 | 2.93 | 2.94 | 2.91 |
Exchange rate M$:¥100 (av) | 3.67 | 3.68 | 3.68 | 3.64 | 3.55 | 3.46 |
Exchange rate M$:€ (end-period) | 4.16 | 3.64 | 3.57 | 3.43 | 3.42 | 3.42 |
a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. c Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. |
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