During the forecast period Malaysia will continue to post large current-account surpluses, at an average of around 13% of GDP. Growth in exports will be underpinned by a recovery in external demand and stronger regional trade. An improvement in external conditions is expected to boost demand in Malaysia for imports of intermediate goods used in the manufacture of exports. Import growth will also be supported by firm domestic demand, but the pace of growth in imports (in value terms) will remain similar to that in exports.

Malaysia will broaden its export range, but the economy will remain highly sensitive to the global electronic-goods cycle. Levels of non-manufactured exports, consisting largely of agricultural commodities (notably palm oil) and minerals (particularly crude petroleum and liquefied natural gas, or LNG), will also continue to be determined by global economic conditions. In addition, there will be a shift in the balance of export destinations and import suppliers in 2011-15. China will remain the fastest-growing economy in the Asia region, creating many opportunities for exporters in Malaysia (and particularly for its ethnic-Chinese minority). As a result, China is likely to overtake Singapore as Malaysia's largest export market during the forecast period, while trade with the US, the EU and Japan will decline in relative importance.