Country Report Malaysia March 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Exchange rates

The ringgit has remained strong against the US dollar in recent months. The ringgit, like several other Asian currencies, strengthened during the second half of 2010, mainly owing to a surge in capital inflows, but the currency has also been supported by large surpluses on the trade and current accounts. A positive interest rate differential with the US will persist in the early part of the forecast period, and this will continue to provide support to the ringgit. We therefore expect the currency to strengthen from an average of M$3.22:US$1 in 2010 to M$3.02:US$1 in 2011 and M$2.98:US$1 in 2012. The ringgit will remain strong during the remainder of the forecast period. BNM has not come under heavy pressure to impose capital controls in order to contain the local currency's appreciation, and the central bank will maintain its current exchange-rate regime, whereby the ringgit is subject to a managed float against a trade-weighted basket of currencies. BNM will continue to stress that it does not attempt to maintain the ringgit at a particular level and intervenes only to minimise volatility and prevent currency misalignments.

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