The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the next general election to take place ahead of schedule. Traditionally, the BN has preferred to call elections about a year before the end of its term in office, which means that the next election could be held in early 2012. We believe that Mr Najib will set a general election date after the Sarawak state election, which must be held by July 2011 and is the main political event before the next national poll. Although the BN has performed well at recent by-elections, the results of the Sarawak election will provide a better indication of the level of public support for the government and its reform plans. Furthermore, political considerations at state assembly level in several of Malaysia's other states may influence the timing of the next general election.

Whenever it takes place, the next election will see the cash-strapped opposition PR alliance pitted against the BN's well-oiled political machine. The BN appears to be in a favourable position to win, although how wide its margin of victory will be remains unclear. Mr Najib has worked hard at presenting the image of a politician who is committed to economic reform, and the government's "1 Malaysia" slogan appears to have found favour among the country's ethnic-Chinese and Indian people, the majority of whom voted for the opposition PR in the 2008 general election. Mr Najib's reform plans may irk conservative Malays, some of whom have joined Perkasa, a recently formed organisation that champions Malay supremacy. However, they are unlikely to vote for the opposition, as they do not trust the PR to uphold the rights of ethnic Malays. Perkasa has been silent so far about whether it intends to field candidates at the next election, suggesting that it may be content to operate as a pressure group that has an influential role through its endorsement of certain candidates.

The opposition alliance is in a more difficult position, and faces a number of challenges. For one thing, it has less money than the ruling BN. For another, its appeal could be undermined by a newly formed civil rights group, the Malaysian Civil Society Movement (MCSM), and by the recently founded Parti Kesejahteraan Insan Tanah Air (KITA, People's Welfare Party), led by Zaid Ibrahim, who recently resigned from the PKR. Both groups have declared their intention to field candidates at the next general election. The PR currently has 76 parliamentary seats, and it is possible that at least one-half of these could be challenged by either the MCSM, KITA or both. This could split the PKR's support base.