We expect the fiscal deficit to widen to the equivalent of 1.2% of GDP in 2011, from an estimated 0.8% in 2010. This compares with the target of 1.8% of GDP in the budget for this year, which was approved by the DPR in October. Although Mr Martowardojo is continuing with the carrot-and-stick system introduced by Ms Mulyani of increasing the budgets of government ministries that meet their spending targets and reducing allocations to those that miss them, underspending remains a persistent problem. Final results for 2010 have yet to be published, but in early January Mr Yudhoyono said that the deficit in that year was equivalent to only 0.6% of GDP, compared with assumption in the revised budget of a deficit of 2.1%. The inability of ministries to spend all the funds allocated to them will continue to restrict expenditure, and we therefore expect the deficit to shrink during the remainder of 2011-15, to stand at 0.1% of GDP in 2015. A forecast further decline in the ratio of public debt to GDP could result in Indonesia's sovereign debt rating rising to investment grade. This would make it cheaper for the government to raise funds in international markets.