Country Report Oman March 2011

The political scene: Government responds to the demonstrations

The sultan and his government responded to demonstrations at the end of February with a series of royal decrees aimed at satisfying the protesters while in effect maintaining the status quo. Many of the initiatives involved throwing money at the problem, as other Gulf states have been doing with varying degrees of success. In the middle of February, three days before the second Green March in Muscat, the minimum wage for Omanis was increased by 43%, from OR120 (US$312) per month to OR200 with effect from March 1st. It is likely that this was an unsuccessful attempt to head off the forthcoming protest which was being organised on Facebook and other social media. A royal directive was issued on February 27th, shortly after the Sohar demonstrations began, that 50,000 registered jobseekers would be found jobs in the public and private sectors, and that all jobseekers who had been registered by February 27th would receive a monthly allowance of OR150 with effect from March 1st. On February 28th a rule freezing social security payments to families where a member had a job was overturned.

Perhaps the most significant change was introduced on March 7th, in response to demands that the Majlis al-Shura be given more powers. The sultan initiated a major cabinet reshuffle in which 12 ministers were replaced, including key portfolios of commerce and industry, the interior and national economy. This was the third reshuffle in less than two weeks, the previous two merely being an exercise in recycling old faces. The third reshuffle is significant in that five of the new ministers appointed to the cabinet are from the current Majlis al-Shura. In addition, two other Majlis al-Shura members were appointed as chairmen of the State Audit Institution-now known as the State Financial and Administrative Audit Institution, in an indication that the body's powers will be increased-and the Tender Board. The appointments go a long way in addressing the issue of corruption as both the audit bureau and the tender board have been perceived to have turned a blind eye to corrupt practices. In reshuffling the cabinet, the sultan dissolved the Ministry of National Economy altogether and removed its minister, Ahmed bin Abdulnabi Macki, who has been the specific target of some protesters. The sultan also ordered the creation of a ministerial committee to consider widening the powers of the Consultative Council, which currently operates only in an advisory capacity and does not have legislative powers. The public prosecution is also to become independent. The Majlis al-Dawa (State Council, the appointed chamber) issued a statement acknowledging the legal right of citizens to conduct peaceful demonstrations enshrined in the Basic Law of the state, but condemned the violence and destruction of property. The peaceful nature of the first two Green Marches held in Muscat in mid-January and mid-February was commended by the council. One of the consistent demands of protesters has been an end to corruption and wasta, the local term for influence, which is all important in Oman. The cabinet reshuffle will certainly go some way towards addressing this issue.

Having inherited a civil war in Dhofar when he came to power in 1970, this is not the most serious crisis of the sultan's reign. However, since then Oman has become known as one of the most peaceful countries in a troubled region. Although the majority of demonstrators appear to remain loyal to the sultan, the events of late February must have come as a nasty shock to him, especially after months of celebrations for his 40th anniversary in 2010. For many years there has been concern that he has been surrounded by those who only tell him what they think he wants to hear. It is impossible to predict exactly how far-reaching the impact of the demonstrations in Oman will be in the long-term. However, at the very least, the dam of freedom of speech has been breached and it is hard to imagine that process being reversed.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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