The 2011 budget projects a 14% year-on-year rise in total public revenue estimated at OR7.3bn. The budget also assumes an increase of 13% in expenditure to OR8.1bn, thereby implying a budget deficit of OR850m. However, we expect expenditure to increase as the government will increase subsidies, unemployment benefits and other monetary handouts in an attempt to prevent more protests. We forecast an average oil price of US$90/b although it is likely that prices will increase as risk premiums in the oil market widen on the fear that the protests might spread to other oil-exporting countries in the region. We estimate that government revenue increased by 18% year on year, to OR7.9bn in 2010 as a result of increases in oil production and oil prices. We have revised up our forecast for revenue in 2011 to OR8.4bn as oil prices are expected to increase. We have also revised up our forecast for government spending in 2011 to OR8.1bn as the government will increase wages and unemployment benefits. We expect the budget surplus to narrow marginally to 1.2% of GDP in 2011. Increased expenditure in 2012 will lead to a further narrowing of the surplus, to 0.8% of GDP.