Peaceful protests, which began in the capital, Muscat, on February 18th, quickly turned violent a week later in Sohar, where protesters set fire to government vehicles and a police station. The measures implemented by the government so far have failed to appease protesters and are unlikely to do so if the sultan, Qaboos bin Said al-Said, does not combine economic reform with genuine political reform. As things stand, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not expect the protests in Oman to yield the same results as in Tunisia and Egypt; they are aimed at the close circle of ministers who advise the sultan and the handful of powerful businesses that maintain a stranglehold over the commercial sector. However, if there are more deaths owing to heavy-handed policing tactics or if there are sustained protests, the situation could worsen. The intensity of the protests is surprising, since they follow celebrations as the sultan completed 40 years of rule in 2010. The main risk factors include the fact that the sultan retains all decision-making power. The government is appointed by the sultan, who is also the prime minister and holds the defence, finance and foreign affairs portfolios. The sultan ordered a major reshuffle on March 7th, which will go some way toward calming the situation, but more political and economic reform needs to be implemented to prevent protests from intensifying.

The biggest political risk, and one that is likely to further alienate Omani citizens from the political process, is the uncertainty over who will succeed the long-serving sultan. The sultan has no children, and none of the three first cousins widely viewed as the leading candidates to succeed him has yet been trusted with substantial executive power. The most prominent among these is Asad bin Tariq al-Said, who is currently a special representative of the sultan.

The final decision on who will succeed Sultan Qaboos will not be made until after his death, when family members will have three days to choose a successor. Should they prove unable to agree, a letter left by the sultan naming his choice of successor will be opened, and that person will become the new leader. The system is untested and unusual-Arab monarchies tend to have named crown princes. In light of the protests, this unusual method will not sit well with protesters, as it excludes citizens from participating in the transfer of power.