King Abdullah plays it safe

Jordan did not witness the same level of protest seen in Tunisia and Egypt in January, but a steady stream of street demonstrations led by the Islamic Action Front (IAF), professional associations, retired generals, leftist parties and users of social networking sites placed considerable pressure on the government. On February 1st King Abdullah II suddenly dismissed the unpopular prime minister, Samir Rifai, one of the opposition's key demands. Mr Rifai had only recently been reappointed following the parliamentary election in November 2010 that were boycotted by the IAF, the largest organised opposition force. In an apparent response to growing calls for reform, the state-controlled Jordan News Agency (Petra) said that the new government headed by Marouf Bakhit, who had previously been prime minister, would launch a "real political reform process". However, it is doubtful whether such a pledge carries much credibility.

Mr Bakhit is hardly a breath of fresh air. He is from the loyal Al Abbadi tribe and is part of the East Bank tribal elite that has dominated Jordan since independence. Moreover, he had already held the post before, in 2005-07, and earlier had been head of national security and taken on the difficult role of ambassador to Israel. Some members of the opposition were not impressed by the king's shuffling of the ministerial deck. Within hours of Mr Bakhit's appointment, the IAF dismissed the move as ''inappropriate'', bringing attention to allegations of corruption and electoral fraud during Mr Bakhit's previous term in office. However, divisions in the opposition did appear shortly after Mr Bakhit's appointment. Although the IAF and leftist parties vowed to continue their demonstrations, other opponents, notably a group of retired East Bank military figures who had become active in the protests, agreed to suspend their participation to give the new prime minister time to initiate reform.

Although this new cabinet could well bring about the changes demanded, the king's choice of prime minister says much about his approach to this emerging crisis. Mr Bakhit was first appointed prime minister in the immediate aftermath of the 2005 bombings in the capital, Amman, and is seen by the monarch as a safe pair of hands. With his military background, Mr Bakhit's appointment suggests that the Jordanian monarchy is pursuing a similar survival strategy to that used by Hosni Mubarak in Egypt: drawing on its core military supporters by appointing key military figures to senior government posts. Under Mr Rifai, who is of Palestinian origin, the government was led by technocrats and businessmen, prompting criticism from the monarchy's traditional East Bank military establishment supporters that King Abdullah was being too pro-Palestinian. By appointing Mr Bakhit, with his East Bank tribal and military ties, the king is shoring up his position.