Country Report Jordan February 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Policy trends

Government attempts to liberalise the economy will probably be impeded in the short term by political concessions made following the January demonstrations. After shielding the population from the impact of the economic downturn in 2008-09, the priority in 2010 was to push ahead with economic reform. Aware of the large fiscal deficit, the government sought to rein in social-security outlays, exemplified by the introduction of a temporary law in October 2009 raising the minimum retirement age. It may have trouble getting these changes passed into law, however. The make-up of the new parliament strongly resembles the previous one, which was lethargic in tackling economic reform, contributing to the king's decision to dissolve parliament two years early. On top of this, economic promises made in response to the January demonstrations will force some revisions of these deficit-cutting measures.

Attempts to encourage greater private-sector involvement (including through public-private partnerships) in public service provision will proceed slowly, given the increased risk aversion of private businesses and the financial sector, and political pressures will preclude any major cutback in the state's bloated public-sector payroll. As a result, the government will remain heavily reliant on foreign grants to cover its deficits. This dependence has caused it considerable problems during the global recession, when such assistance fell sharply, but inflows rebounded in 2010, and are expected to continue to recover over the forecast period. Foreign aid from the US and Saudi Arabia may increase further in the wake of the Egypt crisis as they seek to ease domestic pressure on their Jordanian ally.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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