King Abdullah II is expected to remain in power throughout the forecast period and beyond, supported by his loyal, well-trained and effective armed forces. Nevertheless, threats to stability will persist, with periodic outbursts of Islamist violence possible, although these are most likely to be the actions of aggrieved individuals (rather than organised groups), and the general threat to security is fairly low. Despite elections returning a loyalist parliament in November 2010, the new government was rocked in January 2011 by popular demonstrations inspired by similar protests in Tunisia and Egypt. In response to the protesters, who were complaining of rising unemployment and corruption, the king dismissed the unpopular prime minister, Samir Rifai, on February 1st. Mr Rifai's successor, Marouf Bakhit (who was previously prime minister between 2005 and 2007), faces the difficult task of balancing the democratic demands of the protesters with long-standing government priorities of economic reform and development.

In response to the protests, King Abdullah tasked Mr Bakhit with advancing ''real political reform'', and increased fuel and food subsidies and civil service pay to quell opposition. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects spending priorities to be revised and some reversals in previous government spending cuts. Strategic political concessions can also be expected, although a widespread democratic opening is unlikely. Alongside this, the government will continue to pursue a "decentralisation" strategy, designed to increase popular participation in decision-making at the local level. In reality, however, it is the king who shapes policy in the country, and he will seek to maintain tight control over the organs of state, while offering tactical concessions to reduce popular unrest.