Fiscal policy will be fairly tight in 2011-12 (expenditure is forecast to grow by 7.5% in 2011 and 6% in 2012) as the government balances the impetus to raise spending ahead of the elections with pressure from the IMF to shift the budget into surplus. Domestic revenue is forecast to grow by 7.5% in 2011, based on the government's modest expectations contained in its draft budget for 2011. This is forecast to rise to 9% in 2012, in line with our expectations of nominal GDP growth. Grants are expected to decline in real terms and will finance less than 10% of the budget over the forecast period. Overall, the fiscal deficit is expected to decline from an estimated 1.7% of GDP in 2010 to 1.5% of GDP in 2011 and 1% of GDP in 2012. Public debt will rise as the government takes on new borrowing to finance the deficits. However, this will be outpaced by GDP growth, and public debt as a share of GDP is expected to decline from 24.3% in 2010 to 21.7% in 2011-12. Despite this, interest payments will continue to consume more than 15% of fiscal revenue.