The Gambia's relations with Senegal are expected to stay largely amicable. This relationship is important because of The Gambia's location as an enclave surrounded by Senegal. Two issues have historically been a source of animosity between the two countries: crossborder trade (both transit trade through The Gambia and unregulated trade between the two) and Senegal's allegations that The Gambia supports a Casamance-based rebel group. These issues are dormant at present but could re-emerge as sources of tension over the forecast period. Despite this, a breakdown in relations is highly unlikely, as both countries have strong economic reasons to maintain ties. For The Gambia re-exports to Senegal account for the majority of its exports, and for Senegal transit trade through The Gambia is crucial to keeping down transport costs between its northern and southern regions.

Mr Jammeh will continue to cultivate closer relations with other anglophone countries in West Africa, particularly Nigeria. Relations with The Gambia's Western allies will remain strained because of the regime's human rights violations. However, these are likely to be largely overlooked, especially if Mr Jammeh is seen to remain compliant with Western efforts to tackle drug-trafficking through the region. Aid inflows could decline-ostensibly because of human rights concerns, but probably because of fiscal pressures in the West (human rights issues are long-standing)-but this will have limited implications, as grants typically fund only about 6% of the budget.