The outcome of the Sarawak state election, which was held on April 16th,was disappointing for both the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition and the opposition coalition, Pakatan Rakyat (PR). The PR won 15 seats in the 71-seat state assembly, roughly double the number that it had secured at the previous state election in 2006. However, this was not enough to deny the BN a two-thirds majority in the assembly. The BN won 55 seats, more than the 47 that it needed for a two-thirds majority, but it lost eight seats to the opposition. Most of its losses were to the ethnic-Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party (DAP), a component party of the PR. BN strategists will be concerned that the ruling coalition's share of the vote in Sarawak dropped to 55.4%, from 61.8% in 2006.

As the Sarawak election campaign got under way, the huge attendance at opposition rallies suggested that the state might be witnessing a political upheaval similar to that which occurred at the 2008 national election. On that occasion, unprecedented gains by the opposition PR had deprived the ruling BN of the two-thirds majority that it had previously enjoyed for more than four decades. The PR tried to turn the recent state election into a referendum on Sarawak's long-serving chief minister, Taib Mahmud, who has been head of the assembly for the past 30 years. This strategy prompted Najib Razak, Malaysia's prime minister and the leader of the BN at national level, together with cabinet ministers, to take part in campaigning in the run-up to the poll. Mr Najib tackled some of the most urgent controversies highlighted by the opposition, which included attacks on Mr Taib for his unwillingness to step down despite having held his post for three decades. Mr Najib gave reassurances that Mr Taib would leave, and implied that this would happen soon.

At the same time, Mr Najib met Christian leaders to allay concerns about religious intolerance, which have been heightened by the recent decision by the Ministry of Home Affairs to impound two separate consignments of the Bible at Port Klang and Kuching because they made reference to "Allah". The government is still locked in a legal dispute with the Roman Catholic church over the use of the word "Allah" by non-Muslims. The dispute dates back to a High Court ruling in 2009 to the effect that non-Muslims could legitimately use the word "Allah" to describe God. The decision upset Muslims, who form around 60% of Malaysia's population. The National Fatwa Council, a local Islamic organisation, declared that the word Allah was exclusive to Muslims and argued that its use by non-Muslims would confuse the faithful. To date, Islamic enactments in ten states prohibit the use of the word by non-Muslims.

Opposition groups, websites and bloggers have complained that they were subject to censorship in the run-up to the Sarawak election. Opposition websites, such as a popular news site, Malaysiakini, were blocked, and the UK-based Radio Free Sarawak was jammed.

The recent Sarawak election was the most hotly contested in the state in recent history, with a record 213 candidates contesting 71 state assembly seats. The large number of candidates reflected deep divisions and acrimonious negotiations between different sections of the opposition, which greatly reduced its effectiveness in the state. With some difficulty, the PR coalition had divided the seats in the state between its component parties, the Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), the DAP and the Islamist Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS). The PKR demanded the majority of the seats and consequently fell out with the fourth member of the opposition coalition in the state, the Sarawak Nasional Party (SNAP). Further reasons for the large number of candidates contesting the election were the emergence of a new force, Parti Cinta Malaysia, which is not affiliated with either the PR or the BN, and the relatively large number of independents deciding to stand. PAS lost all five seats that it contested; its Islamic conservatism holds little appeal for Sarawak's voters, of whom Dayaks make up 30%, ethnic Chinese 29% and Malays only 21%. SNAP, which, given its strong links with the Dayak community, had claimed the right to stand in all Dayak-majority constituencies, failed to win any of the 26 seats that it contested. The most effective campaign was conducted by the left-of-centre DAP, which found the urbanised, coastal constituencies with large ethnic-Chinese populations most receptive to its message. It inflicted serious losses on Sarawak's local Chinese party, the Sarawak United People's Party, which is a BN member. The DAP won a total of 12 seats, while the PKR won three; the two parties together thus took all eight seats that the BN failed to retain. In the 2006 Sarawak poll, the DAP had won six seats and the PKR just one.

The Sarawak state election had been widely touted as a barometer that would be used by the BN to decide on the date of a possible early general election this year. Speculation regarding the possibility of a snap poll has been heightened by recent by-election successes for the BN, but the outcome of the Sarawak contest is likely to prompt BN strategists to err on the side of caution. The BN has set itself an implicit goal of winning a two-thirds majority at the next parliamentary election and also of winning back control over the state assemblies that it lost to the opposition coalition in the 2008 elections. The PR currently controls the state assemblies of Selangor, Penang, Kelantan and Kedah. The BN's failure to win the support of more ethnic-Chinese voters in Sarawak suggests that it will struggle to regain control of the assemblies in Selangor and Penang, in which the Chinese community accounts for some 28% and 40% of the population respectively.