During the forecast period Malaysia will continue to post large current-account surpluses, at an average of around 8.7% of GDP. Growth in exports will be underpinned by a continued recovery in external demand and stronger regional trade. An improvement in external conditions is expected to boost demand in Malaysia for imports of intermediate goods used in the manufacture of exports. Import growth will also be supported by firm domestic demand, but the pace of growth in imports in value terms will remain similar to that of export growth.

Malaysia will broaden the range of goods that it exports, but the economy will remain highly sensitive to the global electronic-goods cycle. Levels of non-manufactured exports, which consist largely of agricultural commodities (notably palm oil) and minerals (particularly crude petroleum and liquefied natural gas, or LNG), will also continue to be determined by global economic conditions. In addition, there will be a shift in the balance of export destinations and import suppliers in 2011-15. China will remain the fastest-growing economy in the Asia region, creating many opportunities for Malaysian-based exporters. As a result, China is likely to overtake Singapore as Malaysia's largest overseas market during the forecast period, while trade with the US, the EU and Japan will decline in relative importance.