Country Report Swaziland January 2008

Outlook for 2008-09: International assumptions

Swaziland: international assumptions summary
(% unless otherwise indicated)
 2006200720082009
Real GDP growth
World5.35.14.54.6
OECD3.12.51.82.4
EU273.02.72.12.2
Exchange rates
¥:US$116.2117.5105.096.3
US$:€1.2561.3691.4601.328
SDR:US$0.6800.6510.6260.648
Financial indicators
¥ 3-month repo rate0.280.620.801.81
US$ 3-month commercial paper rate5.035.064.034.30
Commodity prices
Oil (Brent; US$/b)65.373.378.072.0
Gold (US$/troy oz)604.5696.7822.5706.3
Food, feedstuffs & beverages (% change in US$ terms)16.126.78.1-1.1
Industrial raw materials (% change in US$ terms)49.612.8-3.1-12.8
Note. Regional GDP growth rates weighted using purchasing power parity exchange rates.

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Growth in the global economy is forecast to fall back from an estimated 5.1% in 2007 to 4.5% in 2008 and 4.6% in 2009. In South Africa-Swaziland's main trading partner-real GDP growth is expected at 5.1% in 2008 and 5.4% in 2009, mainly because of strong domestic demand and high levels of investment. World sugar prices are forecast to be relatively strong, although plans in the EU-Swaziland's most important overseas market for sugar-to cut support prices by over one-third between 2006 and 2010 are getting under way and will dampen Swaziland's export earnings. The price of Brent crude is forecast to average US$78/barrel in 2008 and US$72/b in 2009 as global supply increases.

© 2008 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information
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