Country Report Swaziland January 2008

Outlook for 2008-09: International assumptions

Swaziland: international assumptions summary
(% unless otherwise indicated)
Real GDP growth
Exchange rates
Financial indicators
¥ 3-month repo rate0.280.620.801.81
US$ 3-month commercial paper rate5.
Commodity prices
Oil (Brent; US$/b)65.373.378.072.0
Gold (US$/troy oz)604.5696.7822.5706.3
Food, feedstuffs & beverages (% change in US$ terms)
Industrial raw materials (% change in US$ terms)49.612.8-3.1-12.8
Note. Regional GDP growth rates weighted using purchasing power parity exchange rates.

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Growth in the global economy is forecast to fall back from an estimated 5.1% in 2007 to 4.5% in 2008 and 4.6% in 2009. In South Africa-Swaziland's main trading partner-real GDP growth is expected at 5.1% in 2008 and 5.4% in 2009, mainly because of strong domestic demand and high levels of investment. World sugar prices are forecast to be relatively strong, although plans in the EU-Swaziland's most important overseas market for sugar-to cut support prices by over one-third between 2006 and 2010 are getting under way and will dampen Swaziland's export earnings. The price of Brent crude is forecast to average US$78/barrel in 2008 and US$72/b in 2009 as global supply increases.

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