Members of the ruling coalition secured convincing victories at two by-elections that were held on March 6th. Both elections, in Kerdau in Pahang state and Merlimau in Malacca, were for seats in their respective state assemblies. The two constituencies are similar in terms of population and geographical composition and were previously held by members of the BN. Both constituencies are predominantly rural and Malay, with a young population and a mixture of agriculture and forestry-based industries. They are located in areas where infrastructure and basic services have been greatly improved in recent years. Both seats are traditional strongholds of the BN and results of the by-elections showed that the electorate in both constituencies continues to favour the BN. Furthermore, in what appears to be at the expense of the opposition, more people threw their support behind the BN at the recent by-elections than in the 2008 general poll.

The latest developments suggest that the electoral tide may have turned for the BN. While the PR was victorious in a raft of by-elections held in 2008-09, when it managed to either wrest constituencies from the BN or retain hotly contested ones, the ruling coalition's scorecard has improved enormously in recent months, securing four by-election victories simultaneously. The opposition appears to be demoralised. The PAS, which provided the opposition candidates in Kerdau and Merlimau, conducted an uninspired campaign. Yet Chinese backing for the opposition remained surprisingly firm, in no small degree owing to the canvassing by the third coalition partner, the mainly Chinese left-of-centre DAP. In the run-up to the by-election, the main constituent of the BN, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) chose to attack the opposition PAS, claiming that the party held extremist views and ready to jettison the interests of Malays in favour of a pact with the DAP. The rural constituencies of Kerdau and Merlimau are relatively different from the electorate in urban centres, where the population is better educated and has better access to uncensored news, and where the PR has found much of its support. Economic prosperity and high consumer confidence are creating a challenging environment for the opposition, which does not seem ready to face a general election.