Forecast summary | ||||||
(% unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||
2010a | 2011b | 2012b | 2013b | 2014b | 2015b | |
Real GDP growth | 7.2 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.6 |
Industrial production growth | 7.5 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 5.5 |
Gross agricultural production growth | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
Unemployment rate (av) | 3.4c | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
Consumer price inflation (av) | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
Consumer price inflation (end-period) | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
Base lending rate | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
Central government balance (% of GDP) | -5.5c | -5.5 | -4.7 | -4.4 | -4.0 | -3.8 |
Exports of goods fob (US$ bn) | 198.7c | 227.7 | 247.1 | 269.3 | 297.9 | 326.7 |
Imports of goods fob (US$ bn) | -156.3c | -186.0 | -203.7 | -225.1 | -250.0 | -276.7 |
Current-account balance (US$ bn) | 28.0c | 27.8 | 28.9 | 31.4 | 34.8 | 38.7 |
Current-account balance (% of GDP) | 11.8c | 9.9 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 8.9 |
External debt (end-period; US$ bn) | 62.1c | 68.8 | 73.3 | 78.8 | 85.6 | 94.0 |
Exchange rate M$:US$ (av) | 3.22 | 3.00 | 2.91 | 2.88 | 2.83 | 2.78 |
Exchange rate M$:US$ (end-period) | 3.08 | 2.97 | 2.93 | 2.84 | 2.83 | 2.78 |
Exchange rate M$:¥100 (av) | 3.67 | 3.65 | 3.60 | 3.55 | 3.44 | 3.32 |
Exchange rate M$:€ (end-period) | 4.16 | 3.59 | 3.49 | 3.33 | 3.30 | 3.27 |
a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. c Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. |
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