Country Report Togo April 2011

Economic policy: A modest fiscal stimulus will be maintained in 2011

The IMF projects a sharp rise in both spending and revenue in 2011, but a small decline in the budget deficit to 2.7% of GDP, and a much bigger fall in the cash-basis deficit to 3.5% of GDP, as the bulk of arrears (over two-thirds) were repaid in 2010 despite delays. Revenue is expected to jump to 22.6% of GDP, helped by a rise in grants (to 3.3% of GDP) and taxes (to 16.3% of GDP), owing to stable tax rates (after earlier cuts), faster GDP growth, administrative reforms and fewer import duty exemptions. Non-tax revenue will also rise briskly (to 3.1% of GDP) because of the planned sale of a third mobile phone licence (possibly worth 1.2% of GDP), although this will be a one-off gain. Similarly, spending is set to rise to 25.3% of GDP because of an increase in capital expenditure, to 9.9% of GDP, which will boost the prospects for medium-term growth. The IMF believes that this is feasible, given the progress made in 2010 on project planning and execution, but will nevertheless be challenging, given the weaknesses in public-sector capacity. Current spending, however, is expected to edge down to 15.5% of GDP, despite wage rises, because of the much tougher spending controls now in place. Other fiscal reforms scheduled for 2011 include a new framework for Treasury cash management and further progress towards a single Treasury account (a benchmark set for the end of March).

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