Togo's real GDP growth quickened slightly to an estimated 3.4% in 2010, helped by favourable rainfall, improved power supply (from a new electricity generating plant), a modest fiscal stimulus and the global rebound from recession, but serious flooding and long-standing structural constraints were a brake on growth. Growth is expected to accelerate a little to 3.6% in 2011, spurred by new investment in infrastructure, higher government spending (helped by lower debt-servicing costs following debt relief) and continuing structural reforms under the donor-backed programme: these include the overhaul and privatisation of inefficient state-owned enterprises, especially in the banking, phosphate and cotton sectors. An expected rise in cotton production coupled with strong world prices will underpin agriculture. However, growth in Europe, a key market, will remain weak owing to the euro-area debt crisis, while the benefits of reform and rising donor funding will take time to materialise after a long period of economic mismanagement and underinvestment.

Growth throughout the forecast period will continue to be weather-dependent because of the importance of agriculture, which accounts for more than one-third of GDP. However, provided that Togo stays on track with reforms and avoids political upheaval, growth is forecast to accelerate to 3.9% in 2012 (the fastest for several years), the main threat to this being further financial and economic disturbance in Europe.