Local elections being held in 2011 (their date has not yet been announced) will provide the first test of public opinion vis-à-vis the coalition government and Mr Olympio's rapprochement with the regime. UFC supporters across the country will have to decide whether to remain loyal to Mr Olympio and the UFC or transfer their vote to the ANC. Even more significantly, a legislative election in 2012 (probably in October) will determine the composition of the National Assembly for the next five years. It is unclear how much support the opponents of the national reconciliation enjoy; it may be confined largely to political activists in the capital. The ANC will either fade into insignificance, to join the ranks of Togo's many small and inconsequential parties, or it could become a mid-tier player, albeit unlikely to replace the UFC as the main opposition group. The split in the opposition ranks will also benefit the RPT, possibly gaining the party extra seats in 2012. We believe that the coalition government will remain in office until the legislative election, but its survival beyond this date will depend on the election outcome: if the UFC remains the largest opposition group, a new alliance may be formed, but should the UFC lose much of its support to the ANC, the RPT will have to deal with a resurgent opposition.