Faure Gnassingbé, the leader of the long-term ruling party, Rassemblement du peuple togolais (RPT), will remain in office as president during the outlook period after winning a second five-year term-by a comfortable margin-in March 2010. This consolidated both his position and that of the Gnassingbé family, which has ruled Togo since the 1960s, and endorsed his policies of economic reform and socio-political liberalisation. International observers judged the presidential election to have been free and fair, making it the first since independence not to have been obviously rigged. The election heralded a major shift in Togolese politics when Gilchrist Olympio, the leader of the main opposition party, Union des forces de changement (UFC), and an opponent of the Gnassingbé family for nearly 50 years, agreed to join a government of national unity. This split the UFC: diehard oppositionists in the party accused Mr Olympio of betrayal and several leading members left to form a new party, Alliance nationale pour le changement (ANC). However, Mr Olympio's decision was principled and pragmatic, seeking reconciliation with the regime to give himself and his party some part in the future development of the country, at the same time as ending a political confrontation that no longer served the purpose of opposing an illegitimate and repressive regime (Mr Gnassingbé was freely elected and his government respects human rights).

For Mr Gnassingbé, the unity agreement bolsters his credibility as a national leader and his hold on the presidency. Along with his election victory, it will strengthen his control of his party and the army, and reduce the threat posed by hardline elements in the RPT that oppose political and economic liberalisation, such as the president's half-brother, Kpatcha Gnassingbé, who remains in detention after an alleged coup attempt in 2009.

The alliance will allow the government to move forward with institutional and constitutional reforms, to complement progress being made on the economic front. The coalition agreement included commitments to undertake a new population census, compile a new electoral register, draw new constituency boundaries and hold long-delayed local elections. If the agreement holds, as the Economist Intelligence Unit believes it will, it will weaken the political divide, which has long been a source of instability, between the north (where the RPT and the Kabyé and related tribes are dominant) and the south, including the capital, Lomé (where the UFC and the Ewé tribe form the majority).