Country Report South Korea March 2011

The political scene: Talks with North Korea prove to be short-lived

The possibility of a thaw in relations between South and North Korea has proved to be short-lived, at least for now. The first official dialogue since the North shelled the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong on November 23rd, killing four, began on February 8th at the truce village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ, a buffer that separates the two Koreas). This meeting-between two colonels, who know each other quite well on a personal level-was meant to be preparation for higher-level military talks. It began well: a nine-hour session on the first day suggested a real effort to resolve problems. But on the second day the two sides met for only one hour before lunch and just 12 minutes thereafter before the North stormed out. A stream of vitriolic denunciations from North Korean media followed.

It was always going to be difficult to find an agreed formula to discuss the shelling and the sinking of a South Korean naval vessel, the Cheonan, in March 2010 (for which the North continues to deny responsibility). Among a plethora of offers of dialogue-purportedly without strings-in the North's latest peace offensive, the South had agreed to military talks as potentially offering a way forward. The sticking points, it appears, included the niceties of language in stating this delicate agenda in a manner that was acceptable to both sides, as well as disagreements about the date and appropriate rank for the planned higher-level talks to follow. Despite the ferocity of the North's subsequent reaction, this may not be the last word. Nevertheless, hopes of renewed Red Cross talks, leading to further family reunions, have also been dashed for the moment.

The breakdown in talks leaves South Korea more vigilant than ever as to what the North might do next. On February 18th a large and rare, if not unprecedented, 220-strong joint meeting of South Korean central and local government representatives plus the military took place, with the aim of reviewing the country's readiness against any fresh hostilities. The prime minister, Kim Hwang-sik, told the assembled Lee Myung-bak, cabinet, mayors and governors, as well as military and police top brass that "there is a possibility for more armed provocations by the North, so we must be perfectly prepared." On the previous day the head of the US Pacific Command, Admiral Robert Willard, stated at a forum in the US that "we may very well be facing the next provocation in months and not years" from North Korea.

Another contentious issue is a GNP bill that has been stalled since passing the committee stage a year ago. The bill is aimed at setting up a public body dealing with North Korea's human rights issues and giving financial aid to non-governmental organisations that are involved in such issues. The DP fears that this will simply antagonise the North. Southern opinion is divided, but public opinion polls suggest that the Yeonpyeong shelling has, unsurprisingly, boosted support for a hard line on the North and weakened those who advocate handling the situation more delicately.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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