The current-account surplus will fall from an estimated 2.8% of GDP in 2010 to 1% in 2015. The merchandise import bill will expand in 2011-15, mainly owing to strong domestic demand growth and above-trend prices for oil and non-oil commodities. The increase in the total cost of imports will exceed the expected rise in export earnings in the period, so that the surplus on the trade account will fall. However, the trade surplus will remain substantial, at US$30.1bn in 2015. The services account will stay in deficit, largely because expenditure by outbound tourists from South Korea will remain considerably greater than the country's tourism earnings. The income surplus will rise, as outflows of profits on foreign investments in South Korea will be offset by inflows from the substantial stock of assets held abroad by South Korean businesses.