Inter-Korean talks make little headway

North Korea has in the past used aggressive tactics to try to force back to the negotiating table the countries involved in the six-party talks aimed at containing the North's nuclear programme (the countries involved are the two Koreas, the US, Japan, China and Russia). But the other participants in the talks, with the exception of China, have grown increasingly reluctant even to begin negotiations-let alone to provide the kinds of economic incentives that North Korea wishes to receive-until the North provides evidence that it is genuinely committed to full disclosure of the progress that it has made on its nuclear programme. Such a commitment looks increasingly unlikely to be given.

Nevertheless, the South has responded positively to several efforts made by North Korea in January to bring about the resumption of inter-Korean dialogue. On January 5th North Korea stated: "We are ready to meet anyone, anytime and anywhere." Later in the month the North's defence minister, Kim Yong-chun, proposed that he and his Southern counterpart, Kim Kwan-jin, hold military talks to discuss ways in which the two sides could reduce tensions. Initial working-level military talks took place on February 8th. After less than two days of meetings, North Korea left the discussions because of differences: the sticking points included disagreements about the date for higher level talks to follow. Further talks are likely in 2011 and may ease tensions marginally, but no significant breakthroughs are expected and bilateral relations will remain volatile. Indeed, at an event that took place after the breakdown in talks South Korea's prime minister, Kim Hwang-sik, said that "there is a possibility for more armed provocations by the North, so we must be perfectly prepared".

On balance, given the poor health of the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, and the uncertainties surrounding that country's delicate succession process-Kim Jong-il has anointed his third son, Kim Jong-eun, as his successor but it is still unknown how acceptable he is to the Northern political establishment-the North looks set to continue to pose a threat to peace and stability on the Korean peninsula in 2011-15.