Lee Myung-bak looks set to serve his full term and step down in February 2013, two months after his successor is elected. Unless the timing of the presidential and parliamentary elections is altered so that they become synchronised, Lee Myung-bak's final ten months in power will require him to work with the new National Assembly that is to be elected in April 2012. The build-up to the two national elections-and especially the presidential poll-will dominate South Korean politics in 2011-12. The GNP's parliamentary majority will remain safe until 2012, provided that the party holds together. If Lee Myung-bak manages to attract greater voter support, the GNP may be able to keep control of parliament at the election. Even if he remains unpopular, the party could retain its majority if it finds a new presidential candidate who pledges a fresh start.

It is difficult at this stage to predict who will win the next presidential election, or even who will stand. In the next two years both main parties will be riven by fierce competition for their presidential nominations. The GNP contains a greater number of well-known figures, but some, such as Chung Mong-joon, a business tycoon, appear already to have missed their best chance for a successful tilt at the presidency. This description may even apply to Park Geun-hye-whom Lee Myung-bak defeated for the GNP's nomination in 2007-despite her current prominence (opinion polls suggest that public support for her stands at between 30-40%, whereas her rivals in both the GNP and DP all have levels of support only in single digits). Both Chung Mong-joon and Park Geun-hye are old-style politicians compared with a third potential contender, Oh Se-hoon, the mayor of the capital, Seoul; the latter, however, claims not to be interested in standing.

The DP, meanwhile, remains fractious and lacks charismatic leaders. The centre-left's beaten presidential candidate in 2007, Chung Dong-young, may try again, but if he does he will face competition from the DP's new and more moderate leader, Sohn Hak-kyu. The DP is divided between those who hail from its core support base in Jeolla province in the south-west and supporters of the late Roh Moo-hyun (South Korea's president from 2003 to 2008, who committed suicide in 2009). Rhyu Si-min, who was a health and welfare minister under Roh Moo-hyun, is a leading light in the People's Participation Party (PPP), a small breakaway group that was formed in January and is made up of supporters of the previous president. It is likely that Rhyu Si-min has taken this action with a view to running for the presidency in 2012. None of this bodes well for the DP and PPP as the two parties may now split the votes of their traditional supporters. The first test will come during by-elections that are scheduled for April 27th. It is also possible that South Korea's next leader may be a figure who has not yet built a public profile.