Country Report Algeria April 2011

The political scene: The president opens possibility of political changes

The president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, opened the door to further political change in March, saying that the lifting of the state of emergency in February opened the path to "comprehensive reforms" that could not be fulfilled without "political reforms". However, the president has offered no specifics on what this might entail.

The head of the Mouvement de la société pour la paix, one of the three parties that makes up the ruling coalition, Bouguerra Soltani, called at the end of March for changes to limit future presidencies to two terms of five years each, to impose the retirement of politicians at the age of 70, and to limit the role of the army to that of a political arbitrator rather than a political player. Whether Mr Bouteflika will be prepared to accede to any of these demands remains unclear. To date, the government's concessions have disappointed those protesters who campaigned in February for a change to the governing regime. The lifting of the 19-year-long state of emergency has not prevented the continued suppression during March of demonstrations in the capital Algiers, which are still forbidden without prior authorisation. Social and economic protests intensified in March, with students, teachers, doctors, legal clerks, oil workers, chauffeurs and municipal police all taking strike action. But without any political coherence this movement is unlikely to present any threat to the regime, and can be combated by a continuation of the government's existing strategy of capping food prices, increasing salaries and trying to accelerate its plans to provide jobs and housing, especially for young people. In contrast to the mounting protests against economic grievances, a political campaign that in the first two February demonstrations drew hundreds of protesters onto the streets to call for regime change has since dwindled: a rally in Algiers on February 26th attracted about 50 people according to media reports.

Some political changes cannot be ruled out. The reversal of the legislative change in late 2008 that removed the limit to the number of terms that can be served by a president would not be a great loss to Mr Bouteflika, who is 74 years of age, has suffered severe health problems in recent years, and still has three years left of his current mandate. But root and branch change is extremely unlikely. In the past few weeks, the cabinet has pointedly closed ranks around the president. Mr Bouteflika has no intention of resigning before the end of his mandate, the foreign affairs minister, Mourad Medelci, told Dow Jones on March 7th, adding that the president would not succumb to political pressure. Speaking in public for the first time in weeks, the prime minister, Ahmed Ouyahia, told state television at the end of March that there has been no political crisis in Algeria. Further social and economic measures would soon be announced in addition to those agreed at the cabinet meeting on February 22nd, but there was no need to change the political system, he said.

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