Domestic price pressures will be high in 2011-12 as prices for energy and food rise. We expect prices of wheat, of which Algeria is one of the world's largest importers, to rise by around 31% this year. The monopolised import market will keep domestic prices high. The government will attempt to limit the effect of international price movements on the domestic market by imposing price ceilings, suspending import tariffs for most of 2011 and trying to manage distribution. This may push demand onto the black market, where prices for food and other imports are likely to be much higher. The government will also try to quell social unrest among state employees through pay rises, which will lead to higher nominal wages at all salary levels. We expect inflation to average 4.8% in 2011 and 4.6% in 2012. Inflation will continue to creep up in 2013-15 as the government's investment strategy takes hold.