The next parliamentary election is scheduled for 2012, and we expect the results to be similar to those in the previous election in 2007, although the balance of political forces could be affected by the rise of youth-based movements along the lines of those in Egypt and Tunisia. The Front de libération nationale, historically Algeria's ruling party, will continue to lose ground as the dominant political force in the country and will probably see an internal shake-up before the election. Internal conflict within the party is growing, with reports of violent altercations between party members, and the position of the party's secretary-general, Abdelaziz Belkhadem, looks increasingly untenable. The Rassemblement nationale démocratique, the party of the prime minister, and opposition parties, including the conservative Front national algérien, will probably gain more seats in the next election. The presidential election will take place in 2014. Parliament ratified a change to the constitution in 2008 that allowed Mr Bouteflika to run for a third term; it now seems unlikely that Mr Bouteflika would be able to run for a fourth term given opposition to long-serving leaders across the region.