Country Report Ethiopia May 2011

Economic performance: Inflation pressures grow; it starts to look like 2008

Fears of rising inflation since the start of the year have proved well-founded, as the year-on-year inflation rate reached almost 30% in April. The rate was 29.5% in April, up from 25% in March and 16.5% in February. This is similar to the April 2008 figure of 29.7%; a year in which inflation spiked to average 44.4% over the 12 months. Unfortunately for consumers, it appears that the comparison with 2008 may continue to prove apposite, as price pressures are likely to remain high for the rest of the year. Drought in some regions has lowered domestic food production, exacerbating price increases driven by rising global food prices. Meanwhile, a 14% rise in petrol prices was recently announced, prompted by higher international oil prices; both factors that are reminiscent of the commodity price surge that drove inflation in 2008. Although the government is clearly aware of the damage that such high inflation can do to the economy, some of its policies have added to price pressures. The steep devaluation of the currency in September 2010 increased imported inflation, while the price ceilings that were introduced in January in an unrealistic attempt to limit inflation have actually led to shortages of goods, which will push prices higher. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that inflation in 2011 will average 22.7%, before easing to 11% in 2012 as commodity prices fall back.

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