Country Report Ethiopia May 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Election watch

Following the landslide victory of the EPRDF in the May 2010 election, the ruling party will consolidate its control while the opposition will enter a period of reflection, trying to come up with strategies to force the government to open up the political space over the next five years. The next elections are not due until 2015, but the opposition has a lot of work to do to make itself competitive at the polls. The largest opposition alliance, the Ethiopia Federal Democratic Unity Forum (known as Forum, or Medrek in Amharic), has announced plans to transform from a coalition into a political front and has appointed a new chairman. One of its six constituent parties, the Unity for Democracy and Justice, has spoken of plans to merge with two smaller opposition parties, the All Ethiopian Unity Party and the Birhan for Unity and Democracy Party, which would enlarge the alliance. However, most of the opposition parties are still having difficulty agreeing on anything. The divided nature of the opposition, as well as its inability to raise significant funds domestically, will make it relatively easy for the government to keep it marginalised.

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