The ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) is expected to remain firmly in control at all levels of government following its emphatic victory in the parliamentary election in May 2010. The EPRDF has a 99% majority in Ethiopia's House of People's Representatives (lower house), as other candidates won just two seats. Although the opposition ran a dismal campaign, the scale of the victory mostly resulted from the passage of restrictive laws governing the media, civil society and political funding. The hegemony of the EPRDF will probably ensure political stability, but recent turmoil in North Africa has stoked government fears about civil unrest, and the opposition has accused the government of arresting 200 of its members in March. The party will hope that the recently introduced public-sector pay rises and price ceilings to limit inflation will help to quell any potential unease.

The prime minister, Meles Zenawi, has said that he will stay as party leader until 2015, and the Economist Intelligence Unit expects that he will tighten his grip on power. His position was strengthened in September 2010 by the appointment of loyalists as the chairmen of two of the four parties that comprise the EPRDF coalition. Moreover, the appointment of a new cabinet in October was taken as an opportunity to promote younger supporters to replace older allies who might otherwise have tried to position themselves to succeed Mr Meles. It is unclear whether he is strengthening his position with the intention of running for re-election in 2015 (he is only 55 years old) or to enable him to choose his own successor. At the moment, Mr Meles appears to be the only candidate capable of holding together the EPRDF's multi-ethnic framework, using his authority and force of personality.