Country Report Benin April 2008

Outlook for 2008-09: International assumptions

Benin: international assumptions summary
(% unless otherwise indicated)
 2006200720082009
Real GDP growth
World4.94.73.73.9
OECD3.12.71.62.0
EU273.12.81.82.1
Exchange rates
¥:US$116.2117.8102.096.0
US$:€1.2561.3691.4581.328
SDR:US$0.6800.6510.6280.649
Financial indicators
€ 3-month interbank rate3.084.274.184.00
US$ 3-month commercial paper rate5.035.062.352.93
Commodity prices
Oil (Brent; US$/b)65.372.791.385.0
Cotton (US cents/lb)58.664.072.878.5
Food, feedstuffs & beverages (% change in US$ terms)10.237.827.4-3.7
Industrial raw materials (% change in US$ terms)49.610.8-8.0-13.1
Note. Regional GDP growth rates weighted using purchasing power parity exchange rates.

Download the numbers in Excel

We expect global growth to slow to 3.7% in 2008 (on a purchasing power parity basis), reflecting the troubles afflicting the US economy and their global repercussions, before rising modestly, to 3.9%, in 2009. Growth in the EU, one of Benin's main trading partners, is forecast to fall to 1.8% in 2008 and 2.1% in 2009. We now forecast that average world oil prices will jump sharply in 2008, before easing slightly in 2009. Cotton prices are expected to stage a further recovery to 72.8 US cents/lb in 2008 and 78.5 US cents/lb in 2009. However, developments in Benin's cotton industry will be influenced more by domestic cotton prices and reforms in the sector.

© 2008 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information
IMPRINT