Country Report Japan May 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: International relations

Viewed in a larger context, the disaster will have a range of effects on Japan's international position. On a positive note, dozens of countries have extended financial, technological or other forms of assistance. Foremost among them is the US, which has deployed some of its military manpower to assist in rescue and damage-limitation efforts, as well as providing substantial aid. Such co­operation will doubtless deepen Japan's relationship with the US, and may also encourage closer collaboration with South Korea (the latter is also presently providing assistance). To this extent, Japan may emerge from the catastrophe with its security system reinforced.

However, the catastrophe could undermine Japan's national confidence, a fact that will give China an additional geopolitical advantage in East Asia. Also noteworthy is the degree to which the disaster has discredited nuclear power at a time when the rest of the world seemed poised to embrace this technology as an alternative to fossil fuels. Switzerland, France and other countries have announced that they will reconsider their plans for additional nuclear investment, and it seems likely that the balance in Japan will shift in favour of oil, coal and other financially feasible forms of energy. This, in turn, will exacerbate the problem of global warming while also redounding to the geopolitical advantage of countries with abundant hydrocarbon reserves.

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