The government estimates that GDP growth was strong in 2010 but forecasts that it will slow in 2011 as a result of rising political tensions. A quarterly survey of business confidence in the third quarter of 2010, produced by the central bank, found that companies remained confident, but less so than in 2009. Using its own measures, the survey recorded overall confidence at +11 in the third quarter of 2010, compared with +33 for the same period of 2009, with the indicator recording the balance between managers who expected an improvement in business and those who expected a decline over the following quarter. Inventory figures were reported to be unchanged over the period.

An array of GDP growth forecasts were issued during December and January by international and regional organisations, which mostly expected lower growth in 2011. Standard & Poor's, a credit rating agency, put GDP growth at 8.9% in 2010 and expected this to fall to an annual average of 5.8% in 2011-13. It said that tourism and financial services would continue to drive economic expansion, but that political instability could affect consumer and investor confidence. Merrill Lynch, a US investment bank, estimated full-year 2010 growth in Lebanon at 8%, expecting this to fall to 5.9% in 2011. It said that the economy had expanded by between 25% and 30% in the past three years as a result of strong expansion in tourism, construction and retail activity. Standard Chartered, a UK bank specialising in emerging markets, put full-year 2010 growth at 7% and forecast that this would fall to 6.5% in 2011. It attributed this continued strong activity to growth in tourism, construction and financial services. EFG Hermes, an Egypt-based investment bank, forecast GDP growth of 5% in 2011, but again said that this was subject to continued political stability. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects growth to slow in 2011, to 5.9%, down from 7.5% in 2010. The growth forecasts reflect a widespread anecdotal view among companies in Beirut that they are holding back from making investment decisions until the STL issue is resolved and expecting a clearer picture before the end of the first quarter.