Country Report Lebanon January 2011

The political scene: Regional powers increasingly drawn into dispute

Hizbullah's actions further blocked political and economic policymaking. All attention was focused instead on trying to resolve the stand-off between the March 8th and the March 14th blocs. Rather than hold direct negotiations between themselves, the political groupings turned to regional and global powers to resolve their domestic issues. However, this added the complication of the political agendas of the countries that play a role in Lebanon's politics: Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran, France and the US. Saudi Arabia, which had close ties to Rafiq Hariri, has long sought justice for his killing, but has become increasingly pragmatic, recognising the risk to civil peace in Lebanon were the indictments to lead to trials. In December it continued direct negotiations with Syria over the issue, although progress slowed when the Saudi king, Abdullah bin Abdel-Aziz al-Saud, was hospitalised. Saad Hariri has already come close to absolving Syria of responsibility for killing his father, putting the country's need for domestic peace above his need for personal justice. It was reported in early January that Syria and Saudi Arabia were close to reaching an agreement that would resolve the STL issue as part of a wider agreement that would lead to the creation of a new Lebanese government came, but on January 11th Mr Aoun announced that any deal had collapsed, prompting members of March 8th to deliver an ultimatum to the prime minister to convene a cabinet meeting.

Saudi Arabia's desire for a stable Lebanon means that it has to balance the need to broker a deal with Syria, which may require undermining or rejecting the validity of the STL, and the importance of maintaining its long-standing alliance with the US, which will continue to press for the legitimacy of the investigation.

The US remains staunchly supportive of the UN investigation. In December it publicly rejected any Saudi-Syrian initiative that would resolve domestic Lebanese political issues at the expense of the STL. Maura Connelly, the US ambassador to Lebanon, said in a statement: "The Special Tribunal for Lebanon ... cannot be stopped by any bilateral or regional agreement."

French efforts to reach a negotiated resolution remained limited. In mid-December Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president, travelled to Paris for a summit with Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, but the outcome of the meeting was inconclusive. A new element in December was a more direct role played by Iran, Hizbullah's main supporter. For the first time, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, took a public position on Lebanon's politics. After a meeting with Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, the emir of Qatari, in December, Ayatollah Khamenei was quoted as saying that any STL indictment would be "null and void". His comments were seen as offering further support to Hizbullah, but caused anger among March 14th supporters because of his perceived interference in domestic politics.

At the STL base in the Netherlands, officials held an unprecedented press conference in December during which they insisted that the investigation had not been politicised.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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