Country Report Lebanon January 2011

The political scene: Late note

As this report was going to publication, Hizbullah, a Shia political-military group, pulled its members and allies out of the cabinet after the government failed to respond to a request to hold a cabinet meeting to address matters related to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), a UN body investigating the 2005 assassination of Rafiq Hariri, a former Lebanese prime minister. Hizbullah's walkout comes as an attempted Syrian-Saudi deal on political stability in Lebanon foundered, probably over disagreements about how the prime minister, Saad Hariri (a son of Rafiq), should deal with the STL. Hizbullah and its allies in the "March 8th" opposition bloc (which include the Free Patriotic Movement, led by Michel Aoun, a Christian former general, and Amal, a Shia-supported political party) held ten seats in the cabinet and the "March 14th" governing coalition, led by Mr Hariri, held 15. Andan al-Sayyed Hussein, one of the five cabinet ministers appointed by the president, Michel Suleiman, also resigned. The resignation of 11 members of the cabinet will mean Mr Hariri will be forced to establish a new government through consultations with parliament, a process that is likely to take months. The collapse of the government does not inevitably mean Lebanon's political factions will turn to outright violence in a bid for control. There have been heightened tensions and a political impasse in the country for several months with a government in place; there is little reason to expect that the absence of a government will make the situation any worse.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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