According to data from the IMF, Lebanon's structural current-account deficit in 2009 widened substantially to 21.9% of GDP (from 13.8% of GDP in 2008) as services credits fell, despite higher tourist numbers. However, given that Lebanon itself does not directly publish current-account data, and the IMF's series have frequently been revised upwards, some of the substantial capital flows-which create a positive overall balance of payments-might in reality be current flows. In 2010 the services surplus widened, and the current-account deficit narrowed to US$7.3bn (19.3% of GDP), despite a larger trade deficit, as higher oil prices and tourism-driven growth pushed up the import bill. Further tourism growth in 2011-12, combined with rising remittances, will narrow the deficit further, to an average of 11.4% of GDP. Lebanon's current-account deficit in 2010 was more than covered by capital inflows, leading to a substantial gross balance-of-payments surplus, and this pattern will be repeated over the forecast period. The main concern is the risk of capital flight in the event of a major political shock, which could create financing difficulties-but under such a scenario, Lebanon would probably receive support from its external allies.