There is a serious risk of another confrontation with Israel in the medium term, and allegations that Hizbullah has received deliveries of medium-range ballistic missiles have increased the tensions. However, neither Israel nor Hizbullah appear to have an appetite for another conflict in the immediate future, following the costly war in 2006, and the southern border is generally quiet apart from daily Israeli reconnaissance overflights and a brief clash in August 2010 over the trimming of trees along the border. That said, both sides could plausibly escalate a future incident to deflect attention from sensitive domestic issues (the STL for Hizbullah and pressure on Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians). The international response to Iran's nuclear programme could have important ramifications for Lebanon. Although the dispute is likely to be addressed through political means, including sanctions, the risk of a US or Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities cannot be ruled out. In such a scenario, Hizbullah would almost certainly be drawn into the conflict, either if it retaliated against Israel after an Israeli strike on Iran, or if Israel pre-emptively attacked Hizbullah to weaken it before attacking Iran or as an alternative to attacking Iran directly. Relations with Syria will remain critical. Syrian troops occupied Lebanon until 2005, and the Lebanese factions remain deeply divided in their attitude towards Syria. Formal diplomatic ties were established for the first time in 2009, and Syrian influence appears to be increasing, but the relationship remains dynamic and could become strained if the STL issues indictments implying Syrian involvement or if Syria overplays its hand.