Country Report Chad March 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Election watch

Although the legislative elections were imperfect, the fact that they were held peacefully and with the participation of the opposition marks an important step in the country's democratic evolution. However, given the strong concentration of power in the presidency, of much more significance is the presidential poll due in April. The incumbent, Mr Déby, who has been in power since 1990, looks highly likely to win another mandate-a result that could foster unrest in opposition strongholds. No significant threat to Mr Déby currently looks likely to emerge from the ranks of the opposition coalition, Coordination des partis politiques pour la défense de la constitution. A former mines and energy minister, Saleh Kebzabo, who leads the Union nationale pour le développement et le renouveau party, and Lol Mahamat Choua, who was briefly president in 1979, are perhaps the most plausible contenders. However, Mr Kebzabo, who announced his candidacy on February 18th, has attracted criticism for spending long periods of time abroad. Mr Choua, for his part, is already over 70 years old and therefore unlikely to inspire Chad's predominantly young electorate. Meanwhile, Ngarley Yorongar, who came second in the 2001 presidential poll, has been largely out of the country for the past few years, recovering from illness. The only other declared candidate to date for the 2011 presidential election, Wadel Abdelkader Kamougué, is another former minister and septuagenarian. He too is unlikely to pose a threat to Mr Déby, because of both his age and his involvement with the regime of the now exiled former dictator, Hissène Habré (in office 1982-90).

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