Country Report Zambia May 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: External sector

Exports will grow robustly, albeit at a slower rate than in 2010, as copper production rises but price growth decelerates. Growth in non-traditional exports will be supported by fiscal incentives but their contribution to exports will remain very small. Import demand will stay strong as FDI inflows and public spending on infrastructure boost capital goods imports, although this will be partly offset by lower oil prices in 2012. The invisibles deficit will worsen as growth in tourism is outweighed by higher profit remittances from mining and a rise in services debits (in line with goods imports). Transfer inflows will decline in 2011 but recover slightly in 2012, in line with aid inflows. Overall, the current account is forecast at a surplus of 2% of GDP in 2011 (as copper prices rise by a further 28%) and a deficit of 3.7% of GDP in 2012 (as copper prices rise by just 5% and imports are boosted by a sharp increase in public investment). The deficits are likely to be financed comfortably by FDI and external borrowing.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information
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