Fiscal policy in 2011-12 will be expansionary, with expenditure forecast to rise by an average of 17.2% per year. The government plans to implement a shift from public consumption to public investment; with the former projected to grow by 11% per year (on average) and the latter by 38%. This will not be fully achieved. The current spending target is premised on efficiency improvements and tighter controls on wages, which demand a level of political will that is lacking. Furthermore, another maize surplus is expected in 2011. This is likely to lead to excess spending by the Food Reserve Agency, once again, as it continues to buy maize from farmers at above-market prices. Conversely, capital spending is likely to be lower than projected as delays occur in the implementation of infrastructure projects. Despite this, some shift towards public investment is expected and its share of expenditure is forecast to rise from 22% in 2010 to 26% in 2012. In 2011 education has been allocated the largest share of the budget (18.6%), followed by transport (mostly roads; 16.1%), health (8.6%), defence (7.2%) and agriculture (6%). A similar pattern is expected in 2012.

The government's target for domestic revenue growth in 2011-12 (17%) is likely to be achieved as the economy grows robustly and arrears from mining are collected. Grants are set to finance only 7.5% of the budget, partly because of economic difficulties in the West. The fiscal deficit is forecast to rise to 3.8% of GDP in 2011 as grants fall and election-related spending increases; and to 4.3% of GDP in 2012 as infrastructure spending rises. The deficits will be comfortably financed by domestic borrowing, external concessional finance and the US$500m sovereign bond issue expected in late 2011. Public debt is forecast to rise from 26.9% of GDP in 2010 to 28.4% of GDP in 2011-12, but the government's debt-servicing capacity is expected to stay intact.