The presidential and parliamentary elections are likely to be closely contested. The MMD will benefit from the advantages of incumbency and its formidable electoral machinery. However, the PF and Mr Sata should put up a strong challenge to the MMD; Mr Sata narrowly lost the 2008 election and his popularity has grown as public discontent with the government has increased. A controversial reversal of his position on mining taxes-Mr Sata previously advocated higher mining taxes, but now supports a stable tax regime-has not dented his popularity. Following the collapse of the PF-UPND alliance, voter turnout could fall: the electorate is disillusioned with the MMD but is also disenchanted with the opposition's enduring failure to offer a united front against it. In line with recent trends, the vote itself is expected to be free and fair, but the run-up to voting will be marred by bias in the state-owned media and the incumbents' use of public resources to fund their campaigns. Some election-related violence could occur, especially if the government sticks by its decision to ban parallel vote tabulation (whereby polling booths are monitored to ensure that the results announced at individual polling stations are consistent with the nationwide result), which would entrench the opposition's suspicions of electoral fraud. However, any violence would be limited in scale, and its implications for national stability and investment would be small.