The first half of the forecast period will be dominated by the elections, which are likely to take place in mid-2011. Political squabbling will intensify but stability will remain intact. Following months of discord, the alliance between the two largest opposition parties-the Patriotic Front (PF) and the United Party for National Development (UPND)-has ended. Despite this, the elections are likely to be closely contested and could result in a transfer of power from the president, Rupiah Banda, and the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) to the PF and its leader, Michael Sata. Mr Sata's nationalist rhetoric has raised some concern in the past, but he is highly unlikely to depart radically from the MMD's fairly pragmatic policy agenda. Following the elections the government's focus is likely to revert to policy. A referendum is expected in 2012 on changing presidential elections from the first-past-the-post system to one in which the winning candidate would require more than 50% of the vote. A fragmented opposition would then no longer guarantee victory for the ruling party. The population is widely expected to approve the change. Labour unrest and demands for higher wages could increase in the run-up to the elections. Stability is likely to be maintained as the government intervenes to quell any unrest, although underlying discontent will persist.