The expansion of exports of textiles and clothing, which account for around 50% of domestic exports, will steady in 2011 as demand holds up in Europe, the destination of 63% of Mauritius's exports in 2010. Other manufacturing exports should see a similar performance, although fish exports will rise more quickly if the weather and fish stocks favour higher production. Overall, we forecast that the value of exports will rise by 16% in US dollar terms in 2011, having risen by 15% in 2010. In 2012 export growth will slow to 4% with the downturn in Europe.

Imports are forecast to grow by 22% in 2011, compared with 19% in 2010 (following a 20% decline the previous year), the faster growth being largely driven by higher world commodity prices. Slower economic activity in 2012 will weaken import demand, and the effect of this will be compounded by the lower price of commodity imports. As a result of these factors, the trade deficit is forecast to widen to 22% of GDP in 2011-12.

Services credits should increase in 2011-12, mainly as a result of higher tourism receipts, although debits will also rise in line with imports. Nevertheless, the surplus on the services account will grow. The surplus on the income account, mostly reflecting earnings on investments abroad, is expected to increase slowly. The surplus on the current transfers account will remain roughly stable in 2011-12. As a result of these trends we forecast that the current-account deficit, which grew to 8.5% of GDP in 2010, will widen further in 2011, to 10.8% of GDP, before narrowing to 10% of GDP in 2012.