Real GDP growth in Mauritius is forecast to increase marginally to 4.4% in 2011 and then fall to 4% in 2012 as the economic recovery slows in Europe-the destination of more than 63% of Mauritius's exports. Sugar production appears to be failing to respond to the programme for restructuring the sector, now in its fifth year, and sugar's contribution to the economy seems set to continue its decline. Fishing output will benefit from investment in shore-based facilities, but the state of fish stocks will be the determining factor. Manufacturing growth will slow in 2012, in response to falling demand in Europe and the US, although construction should benefit from continuing investment in infrastructure.

The growth of tourism will slow in 2011 following the rebound in 2010 (tourist arrivals grew by 7.3% in 2010 after contracting by 6.4% in 2009) and slow further in 2012 in response to slacker demand in Europe-the origin of 65% of tourists to Mauritius in 2010-and the weaker euro. Financial sector growth will remain buoyant, as economic activity picks up generally and rapid economic growth continues in India, for which Mauritius is a major conduit of foreign investment. The growth of world trade in 2011-12 will benefit Mauritius as an international shipping hub.