The government coalition, Alliance de l'avenir, which consists of the Labour Party (with 30 seats in the National Assembly) and its junior partners, Mouvement socialiste militant (MSM), Parti mauricien social-démocrate and Mouvement rodriguais, will be secure in office throughout the forecast period. Commanding 47 of the 69 seats in the National Assembly, the government has the two-thirds majority required to amend the constitution. The alliance agreement between the Labour Party and the MSM mandated that the MSM's leader, Pravind Jugnauth, should serve as minister of finance under the continued prime ministership of the Labour leader, Navin Ramgoolam.

Less than a year after its formation, strains are growing in the coalition-and not only over Mr Jugnauth's well-known ambition to become prime minister. A scandal has erupted over the public purchase of a private clinic owned by Mr Jugnauth's brother-in-law, which casts doubt over the judgement of Mr Ramgoolam himself. The matter is being investigated by the Independent Commission Against Corruption, but members of parliament from the Labour Party as well as the opposition Mouvement militant mauricien (MMM) are calling for a parliamentary inquiry. Mr Ramgoolam is currently resisting the call, but if evidence emerges of a deal between him and Mr Jugnauth over buying the clinic, enough Labour deputies might decide to vote with the MMM and bring down the government. That would precipitate a general election, since there is little likelihood that the Labour Party under Mr Ramgoolam and the MMM led by Paul Bérenger could form an administration.

Apart from the strains affecting the coalition government, the main issue on the political agenda will be electoral and constitutional reform. The changes being contemplated include the introduction of some form of proportional representation; the amendment of the Best Loser System, by which additional members of parliament are appointed to increase the representation of ethnic-religious minorities in the National Assembly; the establishment of a Senate; and an increase the powers of the president. These are all potential grounds for political controversy. In particular, some members of ethnic-religious minorities resent the domination of the political system by the Hindu majority and are reluctant to see the Best Loser System abandoned.