Country Report North Korea February 2011

The political scene: Brinkmanship risks an escalation of tensions

The South and its US ally reacted with shows of force in the Yellow Sea that included a US aircraft carrier, USS George Washington. This time, unlike after the Cheonan's sinking, China did not protest unduly at such manoeuvres near its own waters. Nor, once more, did it condemn North Korea. It did send high-level envoys to the respective capitals of the South and North, Seoul and Pyongyang. A later report from Japan claimed that China briefly suspended its oil supplies to North Korea as a warning not to escalate tensions.

The North, for its part, issued vehement threats, continuing into December as the South held a series of naval and land manoeuvres, but in the end it held its fire. That is just as well, for if the North were to strike again it would be politically all but impossible for Lee Myung-bak not to order a forceful military riposte, despite the risk of provoking further escalation.

The start of 2011 brought a more pacific tone, including an offer from the North on January 5th to meet "anyone, anytime, anywhere". The South, while insisting that North Korea must admit responsibility and apologise for the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong incidents has accepted an offer of high-level military talks to exchange views on both events and to discuss ways of reducing tensions. No date has been set so far, but initial working-level talks are expected in February.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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