There is still no sign of any political will for serious economic reforms of the sort seen in China or Vietnam, but the backlash following the disastrous currency reform, coupled with the need for stability while managing the succession of leadership, will discourage further attempts to roll back the rudimentary markets that are now essential in terms of allowing the economy to function and enabling people to get by from day to day. This should allow hard-pressed citizens, many of whom are malnourished, to subsist at a basic level. If Chinese investment in North Korea takes off, economic activity could receive a big boost. However, even if foreign investment fails to meet elevated expectations, it should provide a positive boost to growth in 2011-12. This will supplement strong investment activity associated with preparations for the centenary of Kim Il-sung's birth in 2012. Trade activity will continue to be depressed by restrictions imposed by South Korea in 2010, but rising exports to China will provide an offsetting force, and any easing of the South's measures would significantly boost trade. Economic growth will remain vulnerable to weather, and the risk of another disastrously poor harvest in the next two years is high.