Country Report Indonesia May 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Election watch

Indonesia will elect a new president to succeed Mr Yudhoyono in 2014. Parliamentary elections will also be held in that year and will have an important bearing on the outcome of the presidential poll. According to the election law, only political parties (or groups of parties) that win at least 20% of seats in parliament or 25% of the vote in the legislative election are eligible to nominate presidential candidates, meaning that the next president is likely to be the nominee of one of the country's three main parties-the PD, Golkar and the PDI-P. Mr Bakrie is a strong contender for the Golkar nomination, but he would be a controversial choice owing to the possibility of conflicts of interest arising from his extensive business empire. Despite losing to Mr Yudhoyono in both the 2004 and 2009 elections, the PDI-P is again expected to nominate its own leader, Ms Soekarnoputri. The news in late March that one of Mr Yudhoyono's sons is to marry a daughter of the chairman of the National Mandate Party (PAN), Hatta Rajasa, has led to speculation that the ruling party may nominate Mr Rajasa as its candidate for either president or vice-president. Such a move would reduce the possibility of a reformer, such as Boediono, securing the party's presidential nomination in 2014.

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